How Accurate Are Punxsutawney Phil’s Groundhog Day Forecasts? … As we all know, if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow on Feb. 2, we are in for six more weeks of winter weather; no shadow indicates an early spring.
Of course if you think about it, um, does this forecast apply to Pennsylvania, Hawaii and Alaska alike? Even if we only trust this “forecast” in the Northeast U.S. how accurate is it?
Well, as of 2018, Punxsutawney Phil has made 131 predictions, with an early spring (no shadow) predicted 18 times (13.85%). According to Stormfax, as of 2018 the predictions have proven correct 39% of the time.
In comparison, flipping a coin will give you 50% correct answer.
And if you use the persistence forecasts where you “predict” the future weather will be the same as the current weather. you’ll be correct more than half of the time!
So Happy Ground Hog Day – but still read the weather reports!